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The Tories appear cranky, damaged and unfit to govern

Donald Macintyre

Independent

Monday 09 Oct 2000


Irony, at least, has not died in the Tory party. A senior Conservative
remarked in private yesterday that by the lights of Ralph Waldo
Emerson's line "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little
minds", the party has proved to be packed by geniuses. When members of
the Shadow Cabinet queue up to reveal all in public about their
youthful dalliance with soft drugs 48 hours after Ann Widdecombe has
preached zero tolerance for possession offences, no one can accuse of
the party of consistency, foolish or otherwise. Yesterday William
Hague continued the retreat accelerated by the confessions of his
token seven Shadow Cabinet members by announcing that the policy of
mandatory £100 minimum fines was merely an option under consideration,
and that there were "concerns" about it. The proposal will now cross
the stream to that limbo from which few policies return: "further
consultation, discussion and debate".

There are, admittedly, aspects of this bizarre affair which will not
be an unalloyed pleasure for the Government. For a start, the
decision, apparently approved by the Tory Chief Whip, James Arbuthnot,
by his seven colleagues to tell the truth about their youthful and in
most cases suspiciously accidental flirtation with cannabis, was a
conscious one. Most Labour ministers, when asked, have told reporters
more or less politely to mind their own business.

In doing so, the seven shadow ministers have struck a little blow for
truth and against the uptightness of most political discourse. It's
now a fairly safe bet that some of the undeclared ex-cannabis smokers
among senior members of the Government will over time be pressed to
say something. Equally, however, they can do so knowing that some of
the bigger minds in the Tory party have given them entirely
respectable cover. Nor, as Charles Clarke and Mo Mowlam have already
proved, will they be damaged by doing so.

Second, there is something in Mr Hague's claim that he has stimulated
fresh debate. Some of this debate, as Charles Kennedy has been quick
to realise, may in turn even alienate at least a (probably rather
small) minority of Labour supporters who are unhappy that their party
is not more lenient towards soft drugs.

Third, the seven have sent the electoral equivalent of a message in a
bottle to voters, especially young voters, saying that the Tory party
is not quite the monolithic repository of rigid conformity Miss
Widdecombe would have them believe. In part, their motives were less
than high minded. Each of them ensured that they would not be
embarrassed by the issue in the future; and each of them dealt a
wounding blow to a home affairs spokesman who greatly irritates them.
But at least the voters can now imagine that not everyone in the party
agrees with Miss Widdecombe.

But these remain dubious benefits, set against the overall impact of
the affair. For a start, in so far as they exist, the benefits are in
the distinctly long term. And in the short term, an election will have
been and gone. It scarcely needs to be repeated that the affair was a
shambles from start to finish, that it has badly embarrassed the
leader, and that for a party claiming to be ready for government, it
went a long way to proving the contrary. More interesting is what it
says about the deeper eddies within the party.

As it happens, it cannot purely be explained by the schism between the
social modernisers and authoritarians within the party, deep and
genuine though that is. It also exposes the perilousness of trying
crudely to attack the Government, in law and order terms, from the
right. The Opposition loves to fall back on all its largely obsolete
rhetoric about Labour being soft on criminals. This fits neatly, of
course, with Mr Hague's strange construct of the Blair government as a
"liberal élite".

As if. Miss Widdecombe the thoughtful former Home Office minister,
that is, who voted for Douglas Hurd in the 1990 leadership contest,
rather than the future leadership candidate with her eyes on the
Norman Tebbit hard right is in many ways no more draconian than Mr
Straw. She believes, for example, that prisoners can and should be
rehabilitated. And interestingly, it now looks as if she feared that
her proposal for on-the-spot fines might actually be seen as a
decriminalising measure. It has been overlooked in the present
brouhaha that when Michael Forsyth was Scottish Secretary he brought
forward proposals for "fiscal fines" treating cannabis possession as a
minor, decriminalised offence, only to have his plans quashed in
Cabinet by Michael Howard, then Home Secretary.

As a result, Miss Widdecombe appears fatally to have ensured her
announcement would be seen as tough by making the fine big, mandatory,
and incurring a criminal record. This was over-compensation on a
grand-scale, and as electorally self-destructive in the shire counties
as in the inner cities.

One analysis is that the episode was also bad personally for Mr Hague
because by weakening the position of Miss Widdecombe it has reduced
her effectiveness as an insurance policy against a future threat from
Michael Portillo. According to this theory, the Portillistas would be
reluctant to move against Mr Hague after an election for fear that the
result of Mr Hague's removal would be the emergence of Miss
Widdecombe.

In one respect, this was always too simple. It's true that, faced with
a Portillo-Widdecombe contest, many on the centre left of the party
will probably prefer the former. Equally, some on the hard right,
detecting the hand of the Portillistas behind the assault on Miss
Widdecombe, may well correspondingly prefer the latter. And there is
now no guarantee that a Portillo-Widdecombe contest will be what
happens.

Finally, the crisis has been compounded by the fact that in the end
drugs is not the best issue on which to demonstrate the party's
alleged new liberalism. (Since everyone is now doing it, I speak as an
ex-student sometime cannabis user who remains agnostic about full
decriminalisation.) What will really define a victory for a new, more
inclusive, approach to the electorate will not in the end be the
powerfully fraught issue of whether soft drugs have indirect adverse
effects on society. Much more, it will be a function of Tory attitudes
to race, to gays, and perhaps above of all, to women, currently a
pathetic minority of candidates in winnable seats.

In short, the Tory party has taken damage without truly resolving the
biggest ideological issue that divides its dominant right-wing
faction. Last week's conference was not the right one for a party
which had suddenly started to do better in the polls.

If the poll movement had come two weeks earlier and it might have done
if the Tories had been less lazy in August then the leadership might
have prepared the disciplined, harmonious line it needed so soon
before an election. Instead it emerged looking for the moment cranky
and unfit to govern. The very adjectives, come to think of it, that
Denis Healey used of the Labour party after the 1983 election.

 

 

 

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